"So many of us focus on changing the circumstances of our lives in the misguided hope that those changes will deliver happiness," according to the author of "The How of Happiness," Sonya Lyubomirsky.

Change brings with it anxiety, excitement, and a desire to know and affect our future. Yet when it comes to predicting how we will feel when the change is accomplished, we are not very accurate. Sometimes we believe we will experience pure joy, and other times, extreme conflict — what makes us think we can know this feeling ahead of time? Let's look at an example of change in the workplace that illustrates what I mean.

Sally and Jerold work together on the same team. Their organization has just announced that a merger has been approved —people will generally have the same jobs, but there will be lots of changes. New goals, new people with whom to set agreements, a new entity with which to relate and within which to work.

Sally is worried. She believes this merger will get in the way of her career advancement. Everything, she imagines, will hit the fan, her promotion potential will get lost in the shuffle, and life at work will be extremely difficult from now on.

Jerold sees the situation differently from Sally. He believes that the merger is the answer to all of his problems. Finally, he thinks, someone will be looking at all those archives he has been managing, that big mess of files will get cleaned up, and he'll be able to enjoy work and love his job.

Sally thinks this experience will feel absolutely terrible to her, while Jerold thinks he will feel absolutely wonderful.

They are both wrong. Let's explore why.

When it comes to gauging how we will feel about an experience in the future, we are very often wrong in the long run. This will devastate me, that will make me ecstatic, this will make me very angry... perhaps. But over time, any and all of those feelings will subside, if not change entirely.

There is a gap between what we predict and what we ultimately experience known as the impact bias. "It isn't that we get the big things wrong... (it's that) we overestimate the intensity and the duration of our emotional reactions," according to researcher and author Jon Gertner.*

Additional research by Daniel Gilbert, author and Harvard psychology professor, indicates that when people try to estimate how much they will enjoy a future experience, they are dependably, consistently wrong. He calls this phenomenon attentional collapse.

Future projection is based on past experiences — our own, and others' we have heard about. In some ways, we can trust that experience generally provides us with insight for similar circumstances we have yet to encounter. However, while we may know, for example, that we prefer stability to relocation, we don't know the actual sustained degree to which moving to a new city is going to make us feel.

Have you ever fantasized about owning a new car, getting promoted at work, or acquiring the latest cell phone? During the fantasy stage, we imagine our ideal situation in the extreme (advertising plays on the ecstatic ideal very effectively) and then in the acquisition we get a surge of that feeling. Then what happens?

We adapt. We get used to our new situation which soon loses its newness and becomes a regular part of our lives. A part of us believed that having this new thing would bring lasting fulfillment, and, on its own, the new thing does not.

"So many of us focus on changing the circumstances of our lives in the misguided hope that those changes will deliver happiness,” according to the author of “The How of Happiness,” Sonya Lyubomirsky. ** Read an excerpt from her book here.

Jerold imagines this merger will provide him the job fulfillment he has always wanted. Early on, his optimism is valuable — he is seen as cooperative and eager as he holds onto his sense of hope. What he notices is that after some of the archive mess is finally cleaned up, his state of feeling changes. Things sort of feel... the same.

Too bad. Wouldn't it be great if we could stick with that initial feeling and ride that wave for the rest of our lives?

Actually, not always.